Why Do Replica Cross-Border e-Commerce COD Orders in the Middle East Have Low Delivery Rates?

For a long time, the COD (Cash on Delivery) model in the Middle East within the replica cross-border e-commerce space has been lukewarm. It always feels like “a lot of noise but little result.” At the root of the issue lies one key factor: the delivery success rate.

Everyone in COD knows that the delivery rate is the lifeline of this business model. Without reaching a certain benchmark, sellers can hardly see profits.

After speaking with many replica sellers and teams doing COD in the Middle East, I’ve noticed a common trend: almost everyone is still running the “China direct shipping” model. There’s hardly any use of local warehouses or stockpiling, which makes it difficult to achieve quick redistribution of non-standard items such as replica goods. In countries like Saudi Arabia, the situation is very clear: Guangzhou replica bags and Putian shoes flow relatively smoothly, but high-end watches are extremely difficult to move.

Sometimes you hear freight forwarders say: “No problem, don’t worry, shipping to Saudi is easy, customs clearance is smooth!” But the reality is different. Once you try shipping even a small volume of replica watches, you’ll quickly discover the headaches of Saudi customs, often leading to endless disputes with freight agents.

For those in the replica cross-border e-commerce COD game, it’s well-known that Saudi Arabia is a strong market for watches. Local buyers love Rolex, Patek Philippe, and other luxury timepieces. A Rolex with an average order value of around 500 SAR (about 135 USD) is widely accepted. To match this purchasing power, the sourcing cost of these replicas typically stays under $30 per unit.

Interestingly, many sellers find that once you master the operational tricks, getting COD orders in the Middle East is actually easier than in Europe or the U.S.. A seller receives an order on their COD landing page, verifies it, and ships directly from China with the help of a freight forwarder. After that, the rest depends on the logistics provider and whether the package gets delivered successfully.

However, based on conversations with numerous replica COD sellers in the region, I’ve found that the delivery success rate remains quite low. On average, it hovers around 60% (with some better operators reaching 75%). At this level, there’s little to no profit margin—sometimes sellers even end up losing money.

Why Is the COD Delivery Success Rate So Low for Replica Cross-Border E-Commerce in the Middle East?

This issue mainly comes down to three major reasons:

1).  Delivery & Infrastructure Problems
This is the biggest challenge!
The Middle East has uneven levels of development across different regions. In many areas, traffic congestion and complex delivery routes lead to low efficiency in both shipping and receiving.

Another critical issue is that many addresses in the Middle East lack proper house numbers, making it difficult to accurately locate recipients. Since COD relies on customers paying in cash upon delivery, if the buyer is not at home—or refuses to accept the package—the courier simply cannot complete the transaction.

2).  Impulsive Consumer Behavior
The Middle East has a very diverse population. In addition to local residents, there are large groups of expatriates, such as Indians and Pakistanis. Many of them have relatively weak purchasing power and often place orders casually, without much commitment, since COD requires no upfront payment.

Even among more capable consumers, a large portion of orders come from impulse purchases triggered by Facebook ads. Social media traffic in this region is highly impulsive in nature. As a result, many orders do not represent genuine purchase intent. This means sellers must implement strict order verification to filter out non-serious buyers before shipping.

3).  Products That Don’t Withstand the Test
For COD products priced at around USD 135, the sourcing cost is usually kept below USD 30 to maintain margins. But as the saying goes, “you get what you pay for.” Many products simply lack the quality that modern consumers expect.

Worse still, some sellers are unwilling to accept a “low margin, high volume” business model, which leads to poor product quality across the board. As consumer expectations rise, buyers are more likely to reject delivery when the product disappoints.

In addition, some sellers lack confidence in their goods and do not allow open-box inspections, which further increases the refusal rate.

Of course, there are other factors contributing to the low delivery success rate of replica COD in the Middle East, but these three points are the main reasons. They explain why the COD model in this region has long struggled to be profitable. I’ve also discussed this issue in a previous article, which you can refer to for more details.